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Where can you find a shako in diablo 22/20/2024 ![]() ![]() P(Shako dropping after x hours) = 1 - P(no Shakos dropping after x hours) = The probability of a Shako dropping after x hours of playtime can be calculated as: Lambda_estimate = 1 / collective_playtime = 5.3 * 10^-5 ![]() Total_lvl100_characters = 6263 # based on the Blizzard postĬollective_playtime = total_lvl100_characters * 3 h We can derive lambda as the ratio of the number of Shakos dropped to the total playtime, which gives us the following: In statistical terms, the dropping of a Shako can be modelled as a Poisson process, denoted as N ~ Pois(lambda), where lambda is indicative of the average number of Shako drops per hour. From this, we can extrapolate the collective playtime post reaching level 98, if every character reaching level 100 was played for just 3 hours (the estimated time taken to level up from level 98 to 100). Given the most stringent restrictions, a player must be at least level 98 for the Shako to drop. The singular Shako drop occurred at level 98 in a standard dungeon (Champions Demise), thus debunking the commonly held belief that reaching level 100 or engaging in high nightmare dungeons or defeating the ‘Echo of Lilith’ is a prerequisite for the item to drop. The statistical data provided by Blizzard allows us to make a cautious estimation of the upper limit for the likelihood of a Shako dropping within a season. To this day, the Shako remains an elusive catch with only a single confirmed instance of it dropping in the game, and The Grandfather is still waiting to drop. It’s common knowledge amongst us gamers that Blizzard intentionally inserted certain ultra-rare items into Diablo IV, with examples being illustrious items such as the ‘Shako (Harlequin Crest)’ and ‘The Grandfather’. ![]() TL DR Based on Blizzard provided statistics and the only drop you can expect one every 12.5 years if you ‘only’ play 300 hours a season. ![]()
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